US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.40% in Q3 2026.
Real GDP growth by quarter, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the quarter under way, and the indicators behind them.
Shaded bands are US recessions. Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Real GDP growth each quarter, annualised, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the quarter under way.
| Date | Real GDP growth | GDPNow estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | — | 3.48% |
| Jul 1 | 3.40% | — |
| Apr 1 | 2.20% | — |
| Jan 1 | 2.50% | — |
| Oct 1 | 0.20% | — |
| Jul 1 | 3.90% | — |
| Apr 1 | 4.00% | — |
| Jan 1 | 0.10% | — |
| Oct 1 | 2.40% | — |
| Jul 1 | 3.20% | — |
| Apr 1 | 3.60% | — |
| Jan 1 | 1.40% | — |
Factory, mining and utility output against a year earlier.
| Date | Industrial production, % y/y |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 2.25% |
| Aug 1 | 1.62% |
| Jul 1 | 1.28% |
| Jun 1 | 1.46% |
| May 1 | 1.74% |
| Apr 1 | 1.43% |
| Mar 1 | 0.69% |
| Feb 1 | 0.80% |
| Jan 1 | 0.97% |
| Dec 1 | 1.16% |
| Nov 1 | 1.75% |
| Oct 1 | 1.76% |
How much of industry’s capacity is in use.
| Date | Capacity utilisation |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 76.85% |
| Aug 1 | 76.42% |
| Jul 1 | 76.44% |
| Jun 1 | 76.33% |
| May 1 | 76.22% |
| Apr 1 | 76.18% |
| Mar 1 | 75.62% |
| Feb 1 | 75.81% |
| Jan 1 | 75.24% |
| Dec 1 | 75.64% |
| Nov 1 | 75.39% |
| Oct 1 | 75.62% |
Real (inflation-adjusted) spending and retail sales against a year earlier.
| Date | Real consumer spending | Real retail sales |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 2.54% | 2.48% |
| Aug 1 | 2.69% | 2.13% |
| Jul 1 | 2.37% | 1.19% |
| Jun 1 | 2.69% | 2.38% |
| May 1 | 2.66% | 2.43% |
| Apr 1 | 2.17% | 0.30% |
| Mar 1 | 1.91% | 0.30% |
| Feb 1 | 2.34% | 1.08% |
| Jan 1 | 2.03% | −0.23% |
| Dec 1 | 1.47% | −0.55% |
| Nov 1 | 2.27% | 0.18% |
| Oct 1 | 2.49% | — |
Diffusion indexes: above zero, more firms report improving conditions than worsening.
| Date | Philadelphia Fed | Empire State |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 20.90 | 25.50 |
| Sep 1 | 37.80 | 7.60 |
| Aug 1 | 47.40 | 20.60 |
| Jul 1 | 41.40 | 15.60 |
| Jun 1 | 10.30 | 5.70 |
| May 1 | −0.40 | 19.60 |
| Apr 1 | 26.70 | 11.00 |
| Mar 1 | 18.10 | −0.20 |
| Feb 1 | 16.30 | 7.10 |
| Jan 1 | 12.60 | 7.70 |
| Dec 1 | −8.80 | −3.70 |
| Nov 1 | 0.60 | 13.50 |
85 indicators in one (3-month average). Zero is trend growth; below −0.7 after an expansion has signalled recession.
| Date | CFNAI, 3-month average |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 0.03 |
| Aug 1 | 0.01 |
| Jul 1 | 0.02 |
| Jun 1 | 0.02 |
| May 1 | −0.02 |
| Apr 1 | 0.07 |
| Mar 1 | 0.02 |
| Feb 1 | 0.04 |
| Jan 1 | −0.14 |
| Dec 1 | −0.28 |
| Nov 1 | −0.36 |
| Oct 1 | −0.39 |
New orders for core capital goods (excluding defence and aircraft), a proxy for business investment plans.
| Date | Core capital goods orders, % y/y |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 13.65% |
| Aug 1 | 14.07% |
| Jul 1 | 13.32% |
| Jun 1 | 13.42% |
| May 1 | 10.93% |
| Apr 1 | 10.92% |
| Mar 1 | 9.92% |
| Feb 1 | 6.19% |
| Jan 1 | 3.97% |
| Dec 1 | 6.26% |
| Nov 1 | 5.80% |
| Oct 1 | 6.14% |
After-tax profits across the economy (national accounts), against a year earlier.
| Date | Corporate profits, % y/y |
|---|---|
| Apr 1 | 26.61% |
| Jan 1 | 17.52% |
| Oct 1 | 4.57% |
| Jul 1 | 6.54% |
| Apr 1 | −0.84% |
| Jan 1 | 0.78% |
| Oct 1 | 11.39% |
| Jul 1 | 4.79% |
| Apr 1 | 9.56% |
| Jan 1 | 7.12% |
| Oct 1 | 13.26% |
| Jul 1 | 4.80% |
The scheduled US releases that move these figures, from FRED's release calendar.