The US inflation rate was 3.72% over the year to Sep 2026, by the consumer price index (CPI).
Headline and core CPI, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure, what is driving prices, inflation expectations and wages, from official data.
Shaded bands are US recessions. Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Consumer prices against a year earlier. The Fed targets 2% on PCE prices; “core” leaves out food and energy.
| Date | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 3.72% | 2.57% | 3.65% | 3.12% |
| Aug 1 | 3.35% | 2.45% | 3.44% | 3.03% |
| Jul 1 | 3.30% | 2.47% | 3.37% | 3.00% |
| Jun 1 | 3.46% | 2.57% | 3.45% | 3.04% |
| May 1 | 4.17% | 2.82% | 3.82% | 3.16% |
| Apr 1 | 3.78% | 2.74% | 3.57% | 3.08% |
| Mar 1 | 3.29% | 2.60% | 3.37% | 3.11% |
| Feb 1 | 2.43% | 2.47% | 2.80% | 2.96% |
| Jan 1 | 2.39% | 2.51% | 2.73% | 2.94% |
| Dec 1 | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.78% | 2.87% |
| Nov 1 | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.71% | 2.72% |
| Oct 1 | — | — | 2.66% | 2.70% |
Core inflation over the last 3 and 6 months, annualised: where the year-on-year rate is heading.
| Date | Core CPI, 3-mo | Core PCE, 3-mo | Core PCE, 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 3.75% | — | — |
| Sep 1 | 3.41% | 2.90% | 2.92% |
| Aug 1 | 1.97% | 2.15% | 2.80% |
| Jul 1 | 1.64% | 2.35% | 2.95% |
| Jun 1 | 2.29% | 2.94% | 3.48% |
| May 1 | 3.17% | 3.45% | 3.86% |
| Apr 1 | 3.20% | 3.55% | 3.54% |
| Mar 1 | 2.86% | 4.02% | 3.32% |
| Feb 1 | 3.02% | 4.27% | 3.27% |
| Jan 1 | 2.91% | 3.52% | 3.04% |
| Dec 1 | 2.59% | 2.63% | 2.60% |
| Nov 1 | 2.90% | 2.28% | 2.47% |
Measures that strip out the month’s biggest movers or the fastest-changing prices.
| Date | Median CPI (annualised) | Sticky-price core CPI | Trimmed-mean PCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 3.66% | 3.06% | — |
| Sep 1 | 2.81% | 2.78% | 2.26% |
| Aug 1 | 2.10% | 2.70% | 2.20% |
| Jul 1 | 3.11% | 2.72% | 2.29% |
| Jun 1 | 2.11% | 2.81% | 2.28% |
| May 1 | 3.66% | 3.09% | 2.44% |
| Apr 1 | 4.93% | 3.04% | 2.38% |
| Mar 1 | 2.31% | 2.93% | 2.36% |
| Feb 1 | 2.06% | 2.90% | 2.38% |
| Jan 1 | 2.35% | 2.98% | 2.45% |
| Dec 1 | 3.13% | 3.01% | 2.47% |
| Nov 1 | 1.40% | 2.95% | 2.52% |
Year-on-year change in the main CPI components.
| Date | Shelter | Services ex-shelter | Core goods | Food | Energy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 3.22% | 3.22% | 0.71% | 2.45% | 20.35% |
| Aug 1 | 3.03% | 3.10% | 0.66% | 2.63% | 16.05% |
| Jul 1 | 3.16% | 2.99% | 0.78% | 2.94% | 14.45% |
| Jun 1 | 3.26% | 3.15% | 0.79% | 2.99% | 15.45% |
| May 1 | 3.35% | 3.74% | 1.07% | 3.08% | 22.97% |
| Apr 1 | 3.29% | 3.52% | 1.14% | 3.22% | 17.54% |
| Mar 1 | 3.02% | 3.36% | 1.20% | 2.75% | 12.59% |
| Feb 1 | 2.96% | 3.30% | 1.02% | 3.14% | 0.40% |
| Jan 1 | 3.02% | 3.38% | 1.14% | 2.93% | −0.30% |
| Dec 1 | 3.15% | 3.42% | 1.41% | 3.04% | 2.07% |
| Nov 1 | 3.03% | 3.54% | 1.37% | 2.62% | 4.16% |
| Sep 1 | 3.58% | 3.70% | 1.54% | 3.11% | 2.94% |
The Cleveland Fed’s model of expected inflation over the next 1 and 10 years.
| Date | 1-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 3.04% | 2.67% |
| Oct 1 | 2.98% | 2.74% |
| Sep 1 | 2.66% | 2.58% |
| Aug 1 | 2.40% | 2.50% |
| Jul 1 | 2.39% | 2.44% |
| Jun 1 | 3.04% | 2.47% |
| May 1 | 3.54% | 2.49% |
| Apr 1 | 3.28% | 2.42% |
| Mar 1 | 2.30% | 2.19% |
| Feb 1 | 2.59% | 2.37% |
| Jan 1 | 2.59% | 2.33% |
| Dec 1 | 3.19% | 2.35% |
Prices businesses receive (PPI) often lead what consumers pay.
| Date | PPI final demand | CPI |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 6.52% | — |
| Sep 1 | 6.29% | 3.72% |
| Aug 1 | 5.46% | 3.35% |
| Jul 1 | 4.84% | 3.30% |
| Jun 1 | 5.58% | 3.46% |
| May 1 | 5.89% | 4.17% |
| Apr 1 | 5.69% | 3.78% |
| Mar 1 | 4.28% | 3.29% |
| Feb 1 | 3.35% | 2.43% |
| Jan 1 | 3.04% | 2.39% |
| Dec 1 | 3.09% | 2.65% |
| Nov 1 | 3.15% | 2.70% |
Pay growth from three sources, year on year.
| Date | Average hourly earnings | Employment cost index | Atlanta Fed wage tracker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 3.12% | — | — |
| Sep 1 | 3.16% | — | 3.90% |
| Aug 1 | 3.11% | — | 4.10% |
| Jul 1 | 3.21% | 3.37% | 3.80% |
| Jun 1 | 3.38% | — | 3.60% |
| May 1 | 3.34% | — | 3.50% |
| Apr 1 | 3.57% | 3.38% | 3.60% |
| Mar 1 | 3.43% | — | 3.90% |
| Feb 1 | 3.70% | — | 3.70% |
| Jan 1 | 3.66% | 3.43% | 3.60% |
| Dec 1 | 3.73% | — | 3.70% |
| Nov 1 | 3.93% | — | 4.00% |
Hourly earnings growth minus CPI inflation: above zero, pay is outrunning prices.
| Date | Real wage growth |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | −0.56 pp |
| Aug 1 | −0.24 pp |
| Jul 1 | −0.10 pp |
| Jun 1 | −0.08 pp |
| May 1 | −0.83 pp |
| Apr 1 | −0.21 pp |
| Mar 1 | 0.15 pp |
| Feb 1 | 1.27 pp |
| Jan 1 | 1.26 pp |
| Dec 1 | 1.07 pp |
| Nov 1 | 1.24 pp |
| Sep 1 | 0.83 pp |
The scheduled US releases that move these figures, from FRED's release calendar.